Mathematics

Our group has developed mathematical models to define variable SARS-CoV-2 shedding kinetics observed in the general population. We leveraged this model to accurately simulate clinical trials. Our models help identify why nirmatrelvir / ritonavir was extremely effective as an early therapy but failed a post exposure prophylaxis, and why viral rebound is common on this drug. We also explore mechanisms for nirmatrelvir / ritonavir’s superiority relative to molnupiravir.